Natural Diamond Miners Play Defense: De Beers and Alrosa Slash Output to Halt Price Collapse

In response to the historic price downturn, the world’s largest rough diamond producers are implementing aggressive supply-side controls. Facing a market flooded by lab-grown alternatives and weak post-pandemic demand, industry giants De Beers and Alrosa have curtailed production to multi-decade lows in a desperate bid to rebalance the market .

Strategic Production Cuts
De Beers’ parent company, Anglo American, has significantly revised its production guidance for 2026, setting a wide target range of 21 to 26 million carats. This is a steep decline from the previously projected 26 to 29 million carats and continues a trend of aggressive paring that began in 2025. Industry estimates suggest De Beers is currently operating at as much as 35% below capacity .

Russia’s Alrosa, the world’s largest producer by volume, is also producing below capacity—estimated at 15% under potential output. However, Alrosa remains cautiously optimistic. In a statement to TASS, the company’s press service argued that the Rapaport Index does not always reflect actual transaction prices and noted that demand for large stones (over 3 carats) remains stable, with prices for diamonds over 5 carats rising 4-6% in March alone .

A Segmented Recovery
The market is becoming increasingly segmented. While small, low-quality stones struggle against lab-grown competition, high-end, rare natural diamonds are retaining value. Alrosa forecasts that the overall decline in global supply will eventually lead to rebalancing “with sufficient marketing support and the lack of other external shocks” .

However, the outlook remains grim for mid-tier miners. Global natural diamond supply was estimated at just over 100 million carats last year—the lowest annual output since 1992. While this is projected to rebound moderately to 105 million carats in 2026, it is a far cry from the 150 million carats produced nearly a decade ago . The “supply control” strategy is a high-stakes gamble: if demand does not return, these massive inventory stockpiles could further depress prices when eventually released.